Update the Yield Grade Algorithm, Unleash the Incentive Flow
Prime Future 239: the newsletter for innovators in livestock, meat, and dairy
“We will only grow those parts of chickens that we want to eat.”
That was one of many predictions by none other than Winston Churchill in a 1931 article titled “Fifty Years Hence.” That was without a clue that someday America would eat 1.47 billion chicken wings on a single day – Super Bowl Sunday.
While Churchill’s bold prediction isn’t on track to come true even 100 years hence — and yes, it is biologically ridiculous — what if venture investors were to ditch their obsession with faux meat and go all in on making Churchill’s vision a reality?
Maybe that’s a tall order, but perhaps we could at least inch in that direction. In fact, encouraging the beef industry to increase the percentage of meat from every beef carcass may be as simple as updating an antiquated equation: the beef Yield Grade (YG) equation.
It’s not surprising that the YG equation needs updating — that bad boy was originally put to work back in 1962. The degree to which everything has changed in that time is self-explanatory, and the degree to which beef cattle have changed in that time is no less:
Of course, show cattle don’t reflect the commercial industry, but the contrast is illustrative and mirrors the genetic progress – we’ve come a long way, baby.
In the early 1960s, beef carcasses averaged 600 pounds – today, carcass weights are 900+. Yet the Yield Grade equation has not changed a smidge.
We’re applying really old math to continuously improving cattle – and that’s a problem for anyone who produces, processes, or eats beef.
An equation to predict an outcome is just an algorithm – and I can’t think of a single example of another algorithm developed in the early 60s that is still the gold standard in 2025.
I’m learning out loud in real time on this one. With the help of industry experts, today we look at the cost of inaction and the massive opportunity, if this gets done right.