"If we can build micro-nuclear reactors to supply clean power where we need it, at a fraction of the cost per KWh of a large reactor, and have minimal environmental risk, by challenging the assumptions on how you "have" to design and build a reactor, why can't we do the same for pig farms.
"
I love Dr. lowes swine vision but the premise that we're building micro nuclear reactors is wrong.
I'm pretty sure it will be easier to modernize production systems around alternative swine genetics than micro nuclear!
that are already our niche markets for various heritage breed swine products. scaling those into new channels and leveraging the tools of the consolidated industry seems like a reasonable playbook.
modern genetic breeding could find a happy medium on Berkshire pork and the current grocery affair. I get why the big guys don't want the small channels but as DTC grows(it's growing right?) and restaurant continues there is room
besides, beef is leaving a big gap on pricing to fill.
But does this really answer the question of how we make pork - the meat - GOOD? As in "I'm hosting a nice dinner and am making you all PORK CHOPS!" good? I would posit that the pork industry moved to be structured more like the poultry industry because it knows it can't compete on quality/premium experience and has more longevity as an affordable protein than a premium one. 70%+ of pork is consumed as a further processed product, which just doesn't have value when you use a premium raw material.
So then looking at the 30% of fresh pork sales, (and this is a gross over-simplification...but...) you're mainly going to be marketing butts and ribs (for BBQ that will be seasoned/smoked/sauced) and then fresh loins/tenderloins. I don't know what percentage of the 30% would be made up from the loin complex but can't imagine it's much. And ultimately if you're designing a premium quality pork market that is the sliver of the pork industry you're chasing. Is the juice worth the squeeze?
And on the flip side of that, if you structure a premium market around essentially two subprimals, can you extract the value off the rest of the carcass in a "premium" fashion that the value adds up.
Ultimately I agree that pork is in no mans land, and maybe this is my long winded way of saying "I agree." :)
Totally, all of that is what I wrote about in the article about why there's no reason to think that pork will actually move to quality grading. The math doesn't math -- it bacons? ;)
I commend Dr. Lowe on his vision and deep thinking. But, if we add a few chickens and a dairy cow to the equation, a family farm ( large one ) of the 1930’s to 50’s fills the picture well!
Of course lots of kids and maybe grandparents for home grown labor also!
We all should agree on one vision though. And that is PORK is the middle commodity that’s being squeezed by Beef on top and Chicken below on pricing. That will continue with BD beef production and poultry consumer product ingenuity.
Thinking quality vs. quantity is good to target folks with the means to buy protein. However quantity with average quality will still feed more mouths.
It is a dilemma being the one in the middle. But, as with most second born children in the family, they are the scrappy ones and often the kids that surface to the top!
Don’t give up on the pork integrators and processors yet. This is the time to surface!
Totally, that question of how does pork do/think/operate/structure/incentivize/innovate differently to break out of that icky in between spot is my big takeaway from Jim’s comments. I fully accept your point to not count the pork integrators/packers out though — never thought about them as middle children tho, so I’m not gonna forget that 😂
"If we can build micro-nuclear reactors to supply clean power where we need it, at a fraction of the cost per KWh of a large reactor, and have minimal environmental risk, by challenging the assumptions on how you "have" to design and build a reactor, why can't we do the same for pig farms.
"
I love Dr. lowes swine vision but the premise that we're building micro nuclear reactors is wrong.
I'm pretty sure it will be easier to modernize production systems around alternative swine genetics than micro nuclear!
that are already our niche markets for various heritage breed swine products. scaling those into new channels and leveraging the tools of the consolidated industry seems like a reasonable playbook.
modern genetic breeding could find a happy medium on Berkshire pork and the current grocery affair. I get why the big guys don't want the small channels but as DTC grows(it's growing right?) and restaurant continues there is room
besides, beef is leaving a big gap on pricing to fill.
But does this really answer the question of how we make pork - the meat - GOOD? As in "I'm hosting a nice dinner and am making you all PORK CHOPS!" good? I would posit that the pork industry moved to be structured more like the poultry industry because it knows it can't compete on quality/premium experience and has more longevity as an affordable protein than a premium one. 70%+ of pork is consumed as a further processed product, which just doesn't have value when you use a premium raw material.
So then looking at the 30% of fresh pork sales, (and this is a gross over-simplification...but...) you're mainly going to be marketing butts and ribs (for BBQ that will be seasoned/smoked/sauced) and then fresh loins/tenderloins. I don't know what percentage of the 30% would be made up from the loin complex but can't imagine it's much. And ultimately if you're designing a premium quality pork market that is the sliver of the pork industry you're chasing. Is the juice worth the squeeze?
And on the flip side of that, if you structure a premium market around essentially two subprimals, can you extract the value off the rest of the carcass in a "premium" fashion that the value adds up.
Ultimately I agree that pork is in no mans land, and maybe this is my long winded way of saying "I agree." :)
Totally, all of that is what I wrote about in the article about why there's no reason to think that pork will actually move to quality grading. The math doesn't math -- it bacons? ;)
Janette,
I commend Dr. Lowe on his vision and deep thinking. But, if we add a few chickens and a dairy cow to the equation, a family farm ( large one ) of the 1930’s to 50’s fills the picture well!
Of course lots of kids and maybe grandparents for home grown labor also!
We all should agree on one vision though. And that is PORK is the middle commodity that’s being squeezed by Beef on top and Chicken below on pricing. That will continue with BD beef production and poultry consumer product ingenuity.
Thinking quality vs. quantity is good to target folks with the means to buy protein. However quantity with average quality will still feed more mouths.
It is a dilemma being the one in the middle. But, as with most second born children in the family, they are the scrappy ones and often the kids that surface to the top!
Don’t give up on the pork integrators and processors yet. This is the time to surface!
Thanks again for your efforts!
Jim
Totally, that question of how does pork do/think/operate/structure/incentivize/innovate differently to break out of that icky in between spot is my big takeaway from Jim’s comments. I fully accept your point to not count the pork integrators/packers out though — never thought about them as middle children tho, so I’m not gonna forget that 😂