What happened to disruption?
Prime Future 186: the newsletter for innovators in livestock, meat, and dairy
Headline from 2018:
Headline from 2024:
"Amazon.com has grabbed the crown of biggest delivery business in the U.S., surpassing both UPS and FedEx in parcel volumes.
A decade ago Amazon was a major customer for UPS and FedEx, and some executives from the incumbents and analysts mocked the notion that it could someday supplant them. Amazon’s outsize growth combined with strategy shifts at FedEx and UPS have changed the balance."
In 2014 agtech felt like a wild wave, in 2024 it sometimes feels like a stagnant puddle. There's a hint of disillusionment and skepticism in the agtech air. I'm fighting back cynicism like it's my job, including by reflecting on what we’ve learned in the last decade in agtech.
One thing I've realized is that one word was used a lot from 2014-2019 but really doesn't get thrown around much anymore: disruption.
In that 14-19 timeframe, every founder talked about the segments & companies they were going to disrupt. There was kind of a 'burn it down' vibe about how these stodgy, lethargic incumbents weren't gonna know what hit them when an agile lean startup took them on.
The above example of Amazon going from zero to overtaking the incumbents in ~5 years is exactly what we thought was possible in agtech.
(Never mind that (1) logistics & delivery is an established product, (2) Amazon has what has to be one of the largest customer bases, and (3) Amazon is a $1.6T company taking on 2 companies with a combined $200B market cap. None of this would be true for a startup but somehow zero to World Domination in 5 years seemed like a thing that could happen. 🤷🏻♀️)
Fueled by venture capital, of course David could knock down Goliath. Conviction was high about the inevitability of the Blockbuster and Kodak stories that would be written when agtech startups felled agribusiness giants.
But a few things have become clear in the last ~5 years that are shaping my thoughts on what disruption could look like in agriculture in the future.
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